CREA Lowers 2026 Home Sales Forecast: What GTA Buyers and Sellers Need to Know

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) recently released its updated forecast for 2026, and the numbers tell a story that every buyer and seller in the Greater Toronto Area should be paying attention to. In short, the outlook has been scaled back significantly from earlier projections, reflecting a housing market still searching for solid footing amid global economic headwinds.

As a mortgage broker with over 12 years of experience serving clients across the GTA, including Toronto, Mississauga, and Brampton, I want to break down what this revised forecast means for you and how to make smart moves in today’s market.

The Numbers: A Cooler Outlook Than Expected

CREA now expects approximately 474,972 residential properties to trade hands across Canada in 2026. While that still represents a modest one per cent increase over 2025, it’s a notable downgrade from the 5.1% growth the association had projected back in January.

The national average home price is forecast to land at $688,955, up 1.5% year-over-year but roughly $10,000 lower than what was predicted just a few months ago. In March, the average sale price nationally came in at $673,084, down 0.8% from the same month last year.

Perhaps most telling is that the national benchmark home price has now declined for 14 consecutive months and sits roughly 20% below its early-2022 peak. That is a significant correction, and it is reshaping the playing field for both buyers and sellers.

Why the Downgrade? A Perfect Storm of Uncertainty

Several factors are converging to keep a lid on Canada’s housing recovery. A spike in oil prices has fuelled higher inflation, raising the odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike later this year. That has pushed bond yields higher and caused fixed mortgage rates to jump — a move that directly impacts affordability for buyers, especially in high-cost markets like the GTA.

On top of that, broader geopolitical uncertainty, including trade tensions around the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement and global conflicts, has shaken consumer confidence. As CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart noted, the timing of higher mortgage rates combined with the perception that they may be temporary could keep buyers on the sidelines during the crucial spring months of April, May, and June.

Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper echoed a cautiously optimistic tone, suggesting that positive developments on the geopolitical front could lead to a rapid shift in buyer behaviour. There is demand waiting in the wings, but confidence needs a catalyst.

What This Means for GTA Buyers

If you have been sitting on the fence, this market actually presents some real opportunities. Here is how I see it:

More negotiating power. With 167,524 properties listed for sale nationally at the end of March and inventory building, buyers have more leverage than they have had in years. In the GTA specifically, we are seeing a similar trend. Sellers are more willing to negotiate on price, conditions, and closing dates.

Prices may stabilize soon. Oxford Economics senior economist Michael Davenport expects home prices to find a bottom around mid-year, supported by modest job growth, improved affordability, and fiscal stimulus. If that proves accurate, buyers who act in the next few months could be purchasing near the bottom of this cycle.

Lock in now, refinance later. One strategy I have been recommending to my clients is to secure a purchase at today’s lower prices and plan to refinance if and when rates come back down. You are essentially buying the house at a discount and can always renegotiate your mortgage terms down the road.

What This Means for GTA Sellers

If you are looking to sell, realistic pricing is more important than ever. The days of listing high and waiting for multiple offers are largely behind us in most GTA neighbourhoods. Work with your real estate agent to price competitively from day one. Homes that are priced right are still moving, while overpriced listings are sitting.

For sellers who are also buying, this market can actually work in your favour. The discount you might take on your sale could be offset by the deal you get on your next purchase.

Practical Tips for Navigating This Market

Get pre-approved before you start looking. In a market where conditions can shift quickly, having a pre-approval in hand means you can move fast when the right property comes along. With access to over 50 lenders, I can help you find the most competitive rate and structure for your situation.

Understand your full financial picture. Higher fixed rates do not necessarily mean you are priced out. Variable rate options, shorter terms, or alternative lending solutions may give you more flexibility than you think. A good mortgage broker will walk you through every option.

Do not try to time the market perfectly. Waiting for the absolute bottom is a strategy that sounds great in theory but rarely works in practice. If you find a home that meets your needs at a price you can afford, the best time to buy is when you are ready.

Looking Ahead

CREA’s 2027 forecast calls for national home sales to improve by 2.1%, with the average price edging up to $695,094. If inflationary pressures ease and rates come back down, those numbers could be even stronger. The underlying demand in markets like the GTA, driven by population growth and chronic undersupply, has not gone anywhere. It is simply waiting for the right conditions to re-emerge.

The bottom line is this: uncertainty creates opportunity for those who are prepared. Whether you are a first-time buyer looking to enter the market, a homeowner considering a move, or an investor evaluating your next acquisition, having the right mortgage strategy in place is critical.

Ready to Make Your Move?

At KSD Mortgages, we work with over 50 lenders to find you the best rate and mortgage solution tailored to your unique situation. Licensed in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan, we have the expertise and access to help you navigate this market with confidence.

Contact us today for a free, no-obligation consultation:

Phone: 647-802-3738
Email: application@ksdmortgages.com

Let’s find the right mortgage for you — no matter what the market is doing.