If you’ve been following the news lately, you’ve probably noticed the conversation around housing in Canada has shifted — and fast. According to the latest Bank of Canada consumer expectations survey, housing affordability has officially overtaken trade tensions as Canadians’ top economic concern. For those of us in the Greater Toronto Area, that shift hits especially close to home.

As a mortgage broker who’s been working in the GTA market for over 12 years, I can tell you this tracks with what I’m hearing from clients every single day. People aren’t losing sleep over tariffs anymore — they’re worried about whether they can actually afford a home, keep up with rising costs, and hold onto their jobs. Let’s break down what’s happening and what it means for you.

Housing Affordability Takes Centre Stage in Canada

The Bank of Canada’s survey confirmed what many of us in the mortgage industry already knew: Canadians are more concerned about inflation, job security, and the cost of housing than they are about the U.S. trade conflict. A year ago, the trade war with the United States dominated headlines. Now, the focus has pivoted squarely to domestic kitchen-table issues.

Ottawa has taken notice. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has been rolling out housing-focused announcements at a steady clip, and for good reason — it’s what voters care about most heading into the fall economic statement. The federal government recently expanded the HST rebate on new home purchases in Ontario, extending it to all buyers rather than just first-time purchasers. That’s a meaningful step, and one the industry had been calling for.

Ontario’s Expanded HST Rebate: What GTA Buyers Should Know

The expanded HST rebate is potentially one of the most consequential policy changes we’ve seen in a while. Previously, only first-time buyers purchasing new homes under $1 million could benefit from the GST/HST relief. Now, the rebate is being extended to all buyers of new construction homes in Ontario, not just first-timers.

Here’s the catch: the federal government hasn’t released full details yet on how the rebate will work, who exactly qualifies, or how retroactive it will be. That lack of clarity is frustrating for buyers and brokers alike. But the direction of travel is clear — the government wants to stimulate new housing supply and get buyers off the fence.

If you’re considering a new-build purchase in the GTA, this could save you thousands of dollars. I’d recommend staying in close contact with your mortgage broker so you’re ready to move once the program details are finalized.

The Mortgage Stress Test Is Staying Put — And That’s Not a Bad Thing

In related news, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) confirmed that both the mortgage stress test and the newer loan-to-income (LTI) limits will remain in place. Morningstar DBRS, one of Canada’s major credit rating agencies, backed that decision, calling it “prudent.”

I know the stress test is a sore point for many buyers, especially in the GTA where home prices stretch budgets to their limits. But here’s the reality: it works. When the Bank of Canada raised rates by 475 basis points between 2022 and 2023, mortgage delinquencies stayed remarkably low. Borrowers who qualified at pandemic-era rates as low as 1.5% had been stress-tested at 5.25%, and that buffer made all the difference.

With roughly 3.1 million mortgages — about 52% of all outstanding loans in Canada — coming up for renewal by the end of 2027, many at significantly higher rates, keeping these safeguards in place is the responsible call. The stress test protects individual borrowers from rate shock, while LTI limits prevent too much highly leveraged lending from building up across the system.

What This Means for GTA Homebuyers and Sellers Right Now

So where does this leave you if you’re buying or selling in the Greater Toronto Area? Here’s my practical take:

For buyers: Don’t wait for the “perfect” moment — it doesn’t exist. Rates have come down from their peaks, the HST rebate expansion could put money back in your pocket on new builds, and the stress test means you’re qualifying at a rate that gives you a real safety cushion. With access to over 50 lenders, I can help you find a rate and product that fits your budget, not just what the big banks offer.

For sellers: Buyer sentiment is cautious right now, with affordability concerns and economic uncertainty weighing on people’s minds. Pricing your home realistically and presenting it well will matter more than ever this spring and summer. Serious buyers are out there — they just need confidence that the numbers work.

For those renewing: If your mortgage is coming up for renewal in the next 12 to 18 months, start the conversation now. With millions of Canadians facing renewal at higher rates, locking in a competitive rate early can save you significant money over your term. Don’t just accept your current lender’s first offer — shop it around.

The Bottom Line for Toronto-Area Homeowners

Canada’s housing market is at a crossroads. Affordability is the number one issue on Canadians’ minds, and both federal and provincial governments are responding with policy changes designed to ease the pressure. At the same time, regulators are keeping the guardrails in place to protect borrowers — which, in my experience, is the right move for long-term market health.

Whether you’re a first-time buyer trying to break into the GTA market, a homeowner facing renewal, or a seller trying to time your next move, the key is to stay informed and work with someone who can navigate these changes on your behalf.

Have questions about how these changes affect your mortgage options? Contact KSD Mortgages today. With over 12 years of experience and access to 50+ lenders across Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan, I’ll help you find the right solution for your situation. Call me at 647-802-3738 or email application@ksdmortgages.com to get started.