Canadian housing affordability just posted its tenth consecutive quarterly improvement, the longest unbroken streak on record. According to National Bank of Canada’s latest housing affordability index, the mortgage payment as a share of income (MPPI) — the bank’s core affordability measure — fell 1.1 percentage points to 51.1% nationally in the second quarter of 2026, its lowest level in roughly four years. For GTA buyers who’ve spent years being priced out, this housing affordability GTA trend is real, but the reasons behind it matter as much as the number itself.

What’s Actually Driving the Improvement

National Bank’s composite index, which tracks 10 major Canadian markets, has now fallen 11.4 percentage points from its Q4 2023 peak of 62.5%. But here’s the part that matters for how you plan a purchase: falling home prices, not falling mortgage rates, have been doing most of the work. Lower borrowing costs helped early in the recovery, but with rates now largely stable, it’s price declines across many GTA submarkets that have kept the affordability trend moving in buyers’ favour. That’s a meaningfully different dynamic than an affordability gain driven by a rate-cutting cycle, and it doesn’t necessarily continue on the same trajectory.

What This Means for GTA Buyers

An improving affordability index is good news, but it’s a national and regional composite — it doesn’t tell you what’s happening on a specific street in Toronto, Mississauga, or Brampton. Price softness has been uneven across property types and neighbourhoods, so the affordability gain you’d actually experience depends heavily on what you’re buying and where. It’s also worth remembering that affordability improving from a peak doesn’t mean homes are now cheap by historical standards; it means they’re less unaffordable than they were two years ago. Buyers who’ve been waiting for a clearer signal should treat this as one input into a purchase decision, not a green light on its own.

Kevin’s Take

Clients ask me constantly whether now is ‘the’ time to buy, and headlines like a 10th straight quarter of affordability gains make that question louder. My answer is the same one I give regardless of the macro data: the right time to buy is when your financing is structured properly for your specific situation, not when a national index crosses a threshold. With over 50 lenders to compare, I can help you figure out what this affordability shift actually means for your budget in the GTA market you’re targeting.

Want a clear read on what you can afford in today’s market? Contact KSD Mortgages for a free consultation at 647-802-3738 or application@ksdmortgages.com.