For the first time in over a year, housing affordability — not trade wars or tariffs — is the number one economic concern for Canadians. A new Bank of Canada consumer expectations survey shows that housing costs and job security have decisively overtaken trade tensions at the top of the worry list. For homebuyers, sellers, and homeowners across the Greater Toronto Area, this shift has real implications — especially with a Bank of Canada rate decision landing on April 29, 2026.

What the Bank of Canada Survey Found

The Bank of Canada’s latest consumer expectations survey, published this week, marks a notable turning point in Canadian sentiment. Just twelve months ago, the U.S.–Canada trade conflict dominated conversations. Today, it has fallen well down the list. The new top concerns? Inflation, job security, housing costs — and emerging anxiety around artificial intelligence and the economy.

As CTV News Chief Political Correspondent Vassy Kapelos noted at the CMBA Ontario Annual Conference and Trade Show in Toronto: “Now the big concern is jobs and the economy and affordability; those have risen back up to the top of the list.”

Even with Canada–U.S.–Mexico Free Trade Agreement renegotiation and tariff threats still in the background, the federal government now appears squarely focused on domestic affordability. That matters — because government attention tends to drive policy, and policy drives markets.

What Ottawa Is Doing About Housing Affordability

The Carney-led Liberal government has moved with urgency on housing affordability. Two notable policy actions are already in motion:

GST removal for first-time buyers: The federal government eliminated GST on new homes purchased by first-time buyers priced under $1 million. The opposition has argued this measure should be extended to all new builds — not just those bought by first-time purchasers — but the current threshold is what’s on the table.

Ontario HST rebate expansion: The Ontario government extended the HST rebate to all buyers of new homes in the province — not just first-time buyers. This is a significant move for the GTA, where new condo and townhome supply is critical to the market.

There’s an important caveat: the rollout details remain thin. As Kapelos noted, the announcement came with few specifics about eligibility timelines, retroactivity, and application processes. That uncertainty is real, and it means buyers need professional guidance to understand how and when they can actually access these savings.

The GTA Market Right Now: Cautious, But Shifting

The GTA housing market in 2026 is best described as cautiously frozen. Home prices have been falling — which is good news for buyers on paper — but shelter costs, insurance, and living expenses haven’t come down in parallel. That creates a difficult calculation: wait and hope prices fall further, or move now before stimulus measures and potential rate cuts reignite competition?

The demand picture is complicated by genuine economic anxiety. As one analyst described it in the Canadian Mortgage Trends piece, people are sitting there thinking prices are going to go up eventually, but the economy feels like it’s on hold and buyers are uncertain about job stability. That hesitation is showing up in softer sales numbers across Toronto, Mississauga, and Brampton.

The Rate Question: What Happens April 29?

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since March 2026. TD Bank has recently flagged that rate cuts — not hikes — are the more likely next move. The April 29 rate decision is the next chance for the BoC to signal its direction.

If a cut comes, or if the language shifts meaningfully toward easing, expect the GTA market to respond. Buyers who are pre-approved and ready to move will have a real advantage over those who are still waiting to figure out their finances. It’s also worth noting that 1.15 million Canadian mortgages are coming up for renewal in 2026 — and five-year fixed holders renewing this year are looking at payments roughly 6% higher than their current contracts. If you’re in that group, now is the time to be talking to a broker, not waiting for your lender’s renewal letter.

Kevin’s Take: What This Means for You

I’ve been brokering mortgages in the GTA for over 12 years. Here’s my honest read on the current moment:

First-time buyers: The GST/HST savings on new builds are real money — potentially tens of thousands of dollars on a qualifying purchase. But the details of eligibility and timing matter enormously. Don’t wait until everyone figures it out and developers price it in. Get a pre-approval done now and know exactly where you stand.

Move-up buyers and existing homeowners: Fewer competing buyers in the market right now means more negotiating leverage than we’ve seen in years. If you’re thinking about upgrading, this window is genuinely interesting. And if your mortgage is renewing in the next 6–18 months, have the conversation now — options look very different depending on whether you lock in before or after a potential rate cut.

Investors and sellers: Pricing strategy is everything right now. Buyers who are active in this market are serious and informed. Overpriced listings are sitting. A realistic price with a clean offer structure closes faster.

The Bottom Line

Canadians aren’t worried about tariffs anymore — they’re worried about what GTA families have always worried about: can they afford to buy, stay, and plan for the future? The government is trying to help, and the Bank of Canada may provide a rate tailwind in the months ahead. But action beats waiting — every time.

What you need right now isn’t more headlines. It’s a plan.

Contact KSD Mortgages for a free consultation at 647-802-3738 or application@ksdmortgages.com. With 12+ years of experience and access to 50+ lenders across Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan, we’ll help you cut through the noise and find a mortgage that actually works for your life.