If you’re coming up for a mortgage renewal in the GTA in 2026, you’re renewing into a very different market than homeowners faced even two years ago — and the data suggests a lot of people are quietly taking advantage of it. According to CMHC’s latest Residential Mortgage Industry Report, uninsured mortgage switches jumped 34% between the second half of 2024 and the second half of 2025, largely because a 2024 rule change removed a major barrier that used to keep borrowers locked to their existing bank. Understanding how that shift works — and whether it applies to you — is the single biggest lever most GTA homeowners have at renewal time.

Why Mortgage Renewal in the GTA Looks Different in 2026

CMHC says the mortgage renewal “wave” that dominated headlines for the past few years likely peaked in 2025, when a large cohort of pandemic-era, ultra-low-rate mortgages came up for renewal at much higher costs. The agency expects the number of borrowers renewing in 2026 to be about 13% lower than in 2025, and average contract rates on outstanding mortgages have eased from roughly 4.8% in January 2025 to around 4.2% in January 2026 — which has softened, though not eliminated, the payment shock for people renewing this year.

That said, the easing hasn’t been felt evenly. CMHC’s data shows Toronto mortgage arrears climbed 45% year-over-year as of the fourth quarter of 2025, and Ontario’s overall 90-plus-day delinquency rate rose 35% over the same period, even as the national delinquency rate stayed low by historical standards. In plain terms: most people are managing their renewals fine, but the GTA — with its higher average mortgage balances — is where the stress is most concentrated. If your payment is about to jump, you’re not alone, and you have more options than you might think.

Switching Lenders at Renewal: The Stress Test Advantage

Here’s the change that’s driving that 34% jump in switching activity. In late 2024, Canada’s banking regulator (OSFI) removed the mortgage stress test requirement for uninsured borrowers switching lenders at renewal, as long as the loan amount and amortization don’t change. Before that, moving your mortgage to a new lender at renewal meant re-qualifying at the stress test rate — the higher of 5.25% or your new contract rate plus 2% — which locked a lot of borrowers into staying with their existing bank even when better offers existed elsewhere, simply because they couldn’t qualify anywhere else.

That barrier is gone for most straight renewal switches now. In practice, this means:

• If you’re renewing with your original lender at the same amortization and balance, you typically won’t be re-stress-tested.
• If you’re an uninsured borrower switching to a new lender at renewal on the same terms, you generally won’t be re-stress-tested either.
• If you’re increasing your mortgage amount (a refinance) or extending your amortization, the stress test still applies.

The practical effect: your bank’s “auto-renewal” letter is no longer the only option that’s easy to accept. Shopping your renewal against other lenders — banks, credit unions, and monoline lenders working through a broker — now costs you far less friction than it did three years ago, and the upside can be meaningful. Lenders routinely reserve their sharpest pricing for new business rather than existing renewal clients, which is exactly why switching activity has climbed.

Fixed vs Variable at Renewal: What the Numbers Say Right Now

The rate environment itself has also shifted the renewal conversation. As of September 2026, Ratehub lists the best insured 5-year fixed rate at 4.09%, while the best 5-year variable sits meaningfully lower at around 3.30% (prime minus 1.15%, with prime at 4.45%). CMHC’s data backs this up at a national level: by February 2026, variable-rate mortgages accounted for 42% of extended mortgages at chartered banks — the most popular choice — while only 11% of borrowers chose a traditional 5-year fixed term, a sharp reversal from the fixed-rate dominance of 2022–2024.

That doesn’t mean variable is automatically right for you. It typically starts cheaper, is less expensive to break if you sell mid-term, and can be converted to fixed at your existing lender penalty-free. Fixed still offers payment certainty that matters if your budget has no room for a rate increase, or if you simply don’t want to think about it for five years. Bond yields have also been pushing fixed rates higher in recent weeks amid global market volatility, which is narrowing — but not closing — the gap. The right call depends on your risk tolerance, how long you plan to stay in the home, and how tight your monthly budget actually is.

What This Means for Toronto, Mississauga, and Brampton Homeowners

GTA mortgage balances tend to run well above the national average, so even small differences in rate or lender fees translate into real dollars. On a typical $650,000 mortgage, the gap between a 4.09% fixed and a 3.30% variable works out to roughly $250 a month — money that matters a lot more in Brampton or Mississauga budgets that are also absorbing higher property taxes, insurance, and condo fees than a few years ago. With Toronto arrears rising faster than the provincial average, this is exactly the market where shopping your renewal properly, rather than signing the first letter that lands in your inbox, pays off.

A Renewal Checklist Before You Sign Anything

1. Start 4–6 months before your renewal date — most lenders let you lock in a rate that early, and it gives you time to shop.
2. Get your renewal offer in writing, then get at least two competing quotes before deciding.
3. Ask whether you qualify for the stress test exemption on a same-terms lender switch.
4. Compare the full cost, not just the rate: switching lenders can involve appraisal, legal, or discharge fees that your current lender would waive.
5. Decide fixed vs. variable based on your actual plans for the next five years, not just this month’s rate.

Kevin’s Take

In 12+ years brokering mortgages across Ontario, Alberta, B.C., and Saskatchewan, the renewals I see go sideways are almost always the ones where a homeowner just signed the bank’s auto-renewal letter without comparing it to anything. With access to 50+ lenders, I can usually tell within a day whether your current offer is competitive or whether you’re leaving money on the table — and with the stress test barrier gone for most straight switches, there’s very little downside to checking.

If your mortgage is renewing in the next six months, don’t wait for the letter to show up. Contact KSD Mortgages for a free consultation at 647-802-3738 or application@ksdmortgages.com, and let’s make sure your renewal actually reflects today’s market — not just your current bank’s best offer to keep you.